Will quantum computers be a Kryptonite for Bitcoin ...

Technical: Taproot: Why Activate?

This is a follow-up on https://old.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/hqzp14/technical_the_path_to_taproot_activation/
Taproot! Everybody wants it!! But... you might ask yourself: sure, everybody else wants it, but why would I, sovereign Bitcoin HODLer, want it? Surely I can be better than everybody else because I swapped XXX fiat for Bitcoin unlike all those nocoiners?
And it is important for you to know the reasons why you, o sovereign Bitcoiner, would want Taproot activated. After all, your nodes (or the nodes your wallets use, which if you are SPV, you hopefully can pester to your wallet vendoimplementor about) need to be upgraded in order for Taproot activation to actually succeed instead of becoming a hot sticky mess.
First, let's consider some principles of Bitcoin.
I'm sure most of us here would agree that the above are very important principles of Bitcoin and that these are principles we would not be willing to remove. If anything, we would want those principles strengthened (especially the last one, financial privacy, which current Bitcoin is only sporadically strong with: you can get privacy, it just requires effort to do so).
So, how does Taproot affect those principles?

Taproot and Your /Coins

Most HODLers probably HODL their coins in singlesig addresses. Sadly, switching to Taproot would do very little for you (it gives a mild discount at spend time, at the cost of a mild increase in fee at receive time (paid by whoever sends to you, so if it's a self-send from a P2PKH or bech32 address, you pay for this); mostly a wash).
(technical details: a Taproot output is 1 version byte + 32 byte public key, while a P2WPKH (bech32 singlesig) output is 1 version byte + 20 byte public key hash, so the Taproot output spends 12 bytes more; spending from a P2WPKH requires revealing a 32-byte public key later, which is not needed with Taproot, and Taproot signatures are about 9 bytes smaller than P2WPKH signatures, but the 32 bytes plus 9 bytes is divided by 4 because of the witness discount, so it saves about 11 bytes; mostly a wash, it increases blockweight by about 1 virtual byte, 4 weight for each Taproot-output-input, compared to P2WPKH-output-input).
However, as your HODLings grow in value, you might start wondering if multisignature k-of-n setups might be better for the security of your savings. And it is in multisignature that Taproot starts to give benefits!
Taproot switches to using Schnorr signing scheme. Schnorr makes key aggregation -- constructing a single public key from multiple public keys -- almost as trivial as adding numbers together. "Almost" because it involves some fairly advanced math instead of simple boring number adding, but hey when was the last time you added up your grocery list prices by hand huh?
With current P2SH and P2WSH multisignature schemes, if you have a 2-of-3 setup, then to spend, you need to provide two different signatures from two different public keys. With Taproot, you can create, using special moon math, a single public key that represents your 2-of-3 setup. Then you just put two of your devices together, have them communicate to each other (this can be done airgapped, in theory, by sending QR codes: the software to do this is not even being built yet, but that's because Taproot hasn't activated yet!), and they will make a single signature to authorize any spend from your 2-of-3 address. That's 73 witness bytes -- 18.25 virtual bytes -- of signatures you save!
And if you decide that your current setup with 1-of-1 P2PKH / P2WPKH addresses is just fine as-is: well, that's the whole point of a softfork: backwards-compatibility; you can receive from Taproot users just fine, and once your wallet is updated for Taproot-sending support, you can send to Taproot users just fine as well!
(P2WPKH and P2WSH -- SegWit v0 -- addresses start with bc1q; Taproot -- SegWit v1 --- addresses start with bc1p, in case you wanted to know the difference; in bech32 q is 0, p is 1)
Now how about HODLers who keep all, or some, of their coins on custodial services? Well, any custodial service worth its salt would be doing at least 2-of-3, or probably something even bigger, like 11-of-15. So your custodial service, if it switched to using Taproot internally, could save a lot more (imagine an 11-of-15 getting reduced from 11 signatures to just 1!), which --- we can only hope! --- should translate to lower fees and better customer service from your custodial service!
So I think we can say, very accurately, that the Bitcoin principle --- that YOU are in control of your money --- can only be helped by Taproot (if you are doing multisignature), and, because P2PKH and P2WPKH remain validly-usable addresses in a Taproot future, will not be harmed by Taproot. Its benefit to this principle might be small (it mostly only benefits multisignature users) but since it has no drawbacks with this (i.e. singlesig users can continue to use P2WPKH and P2PKH still) this is still a nice, tidy win!
(even singlesig users get a minor benefit, in that multisig users will now reduce their blockchain space footprint, so that fees can be kept low for everybody; so for example even if you have your single set of private keys engraved on titanium plates sealed in an airtight box stored in a safe buried in a desert protected by angry nomads riding giant sandworms because you're the frickin' Kwisatz Haderach, you still gain some benefit from Taproot)
And here's the important part: if P2PKH/P2WPKH is working perfectly fine with you and you decide to never use Taproot yourself, Taproot will not affect you detrimentally. First do no harm!

Taproot and Your Contracts

No one is an island, no one lives alone. Give and you shall receive. You know: by trading with other people, you can gain expertise in some obscure little necessity of the world (and greatly increase your productivity in that little field), and then trade the products of your expertise for necessities other people have created, all of you thereby gaining gains from trade.
So, contracts, which are basically enforceable agreements that facilitate trading with people who you do not personally know and therefore might not trust.
Let's start with a simple example. You want to buy some gewgaws from somebody. But you don't know them personally. The seller wants the money, you want their gewgaws, but because of the lack of trust (you don't know them!! what if they're scammers??) neither of you can benefit from gains from trade.
However, suppose both of you know of some entity that both of you trust. That entity can act as a trusted escrow. The entity provides you security: this enables the trade, allowing both of you to get gains from trade.
In Bitcoin-land, this can be implemented as a 2-of-3 multisignature. The three signatories in the multisgnature would be you, the gewgaw seller, and the escrow. You put the payment for the gewgaws into this 2-of-3 multisignature address.
Now, suppose it turns out neither of you are scammers (whaaaat!). You receive the gewgaws just fine and you're willing to pay up for them. Then you and the gewgaw seller just sign a transaction --- you and the gewgaw seller are 2, sufficient to trigger the 2-of-3 --- that spends from the 2-of-3 address to a singlesig the gewgaw seller wants (or whatever address the gewgaw seller wants).
But suppose some problem arises. The seller gave you gawgews instead of gewgaws. Or you decided to keep the gewgaws but not sign the transaction to release the funds to the seller. In either case, the escrow is notified, and if it can sign with you to refund the funds back to you (if the seller was a scammer) or it can sign with the seller to forward the funds to the seller (if you were a scammer).
Taproot helps with this: like mentioned above, it allows multisignature setups to produce only one signature, reducing blockchain space usage, and thus making contracts --- which require multiple people, by definition, you don't make contracts with yourself --- is made cheaper (which we hope enables more of these setups to happen for more gains from trade for everyone, also, moon and lambos).
(technology-wise, it's easier to make an n-of-n than a k-of-n, making a k-of-n would require a complex setup involving a long ritual with many communication rounds between the n participants, but an n-of-n can be done trivially with some moon math. You can, however, make what is effectively a 2-of-3 by using a three-branch SCRIPT: either 2-of-2 of you and seller, OR 2-of-2 of you and escrow, OR 2-of-2 of escrow and seller. Fortunately, Taproot adds a facility to embed a SCRIPT inside a public key, so you can have a 2-of-2 Taprooted address (between you and seller) with a SCRIPT branch that can instead be spent with 2-of-2 (you + escrow) OR 2-of-2 (seller + escrow), which implements the three-branched SCRIPT above. If neither of you are scammers (hopefully the common case) then you both sign using your keys and never have to contact the escrow, since you are just using the escrow public key without coordinating with them (because n-of-n is trivial but k-of-n requires setup with communication rounds), so in the "best case" where both of you are honest traders, you also get a privacy boost, in that the escrow never learns you have been trading on gewgaws, I mean ewww, gawgews are much better than gewgaws and therefore I now judge you for being a gewgaw enthusiast, you filthy gewgawer).

Taproot and Your Contracts, Part 2: Cryptographic Boogaloo

Now suppose you want to buy some data instead of things. For example, maybe you have some closed-source software in trial mode installed, and want to pay the developer for the full version. You want to pay for an activation code.
This can be done, today, by using an HTLC. The developer tells you the hash of the activation code. You pay to an HTLC, paying out to the developer if it reveals the preimage (the activation code), or refunding the money back to you after a pre-agreed timeout. If the developer claims the funds, it has to reveal the preimage, which is the activation code, and you can now activate your software. If the developer does not claim the funds by the timeout, you get refunded.
And you can do that, with HTLCs, today.
Of course, HTLCs do have problems:
Fortunately, with Schnorr (which is enabled by Taproot), we can now use the Scriptless Script constuction by Andrew Poelstra. This Scriptless Script allows a new construction, the PTLC or Pointlocked Timelocked Contract. Instead of hashes and preimages, just replace "hash" with "point" and "preimage" with "scalar".
Or as you might know them: "point" is really "public key" and "scalar" is really a "private key". What a PTLC does is that, given a particular public key, the pointlocked branch can be spent only if the spender reveals the private key of the given public key to you.
Another nice thing with PTLCs is that they are deniable. What appears onchain is just a single 2-of-2 signature between you and the developemanufacturer. It's like a magic trick. This signature has no special watermarks, it's a perfectly normal signature (the pledge). However, from this signature, plus some datta given to you by the developemanufacturer (known as the adaptor signature) you can derive the private key of a particular public key you both agree on (the turn). Anyone scraping the blockchain will just see signatures that look just like every other signature, and as long as nobody manages to hack you and get a copy of the adaptor signature or the private key, they cannot get the private key behind the public key (point) that the pointlocked branch needs (the prestige).
(Just to be clear, the public key you are getting the private key from, is distinct from the public key that the developemanufacturer will use for its funds. The activation key is different from the developer's onchain Bitcoin key, and it is the activation key whose private key you will be learning, not the developer's/manufacturer's onchain Bitcoin key).
So:
Taproot lets PTLCs exist onchain because they enable Schnorr, which is a requirement of PTLCs / Scriptless Script.
(technology-wise, take note that Scriptless Script works only for the "pointlocked" branch of the contract; you need normal Script, or a pre-signed nLockTimed transaction, for the "timelocked" branch. Since Taproot can embed a script, you can have the Taproot pubkey be a 2-of-2 to implement the Scriptless Script "pointlocked" branch, then have a hidden script that lets you recover the funds with an OP_CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY after the timeout if the seller does not claim the funds.)

Quantum Quibbles!

Now if you were really paying attention, you might have noticed this parenthetical:
(technical details: a Taproot output is 1 version byte + 32 byte public key, while a P2WPKH (bech32 singlesig) output is 1 version byte + 20 byte public key hash...)
So wait, Taproot uses raw 32-byte public keys, and not public key hashes? Isn't that more quantum-vulnerable??
Well, in theory yes. In practice, they probably are not.
It's not that hashes can be broken by quantum computes --- they're still not. Instead, you have to look at how you spend from a P2WPKH/P2PKH pay-to-public-key-hash.
When you spend from a P2PKH / P2WPKH, you have to reveal the public key. Then Bitcoin hashes it and checks if this matches with the public-key-hash, and only then actually validates the signature for that public key.
So an unconfirmed transaction, floating in the mempools of nodes globally, will show, in plain sight for everyone to see, your public key.
(public keys should be public, that's why they're called public keys, LOL)
And if quantum computers are fast enough to be of concern, then they are probably fast enough that, in the several minutes to several hours from broadcast to confirmation, they have already cracked the public key that is openly broadcast with your transaction. The owner of the quantum computer can now replace your unconfirmed transaction with one that pays the funds to itself. Even if you did not opt-in RBF, miners are still incentivized to support RBF on RBF-disabled transactions.
So the extra hash is not as significant a protection against quantum computers as you might think. Instead, the extra hash-and-compare needed is just extra validation effort.
Further, if you have ever, in the past, spent from the address, then there exists already a transaction indelibly stored on the blockchain, openly displaying the public key from which quantum computers can derive the private key. So those are still vulnerable to quantum computers.
For the most part, the cryptographers behind Taproot (and Bitcoin Core) are of the opinion that quantum computers capable of cracking Bitcoin pubkeys are unlikely to appear within a decade or two.
So:
For now, the homomorphic and linear properties of elliptic curve cryptography provide a lot of benefits --- particularly the linearity property is what enables Scriptless Script and simple multisignature (i.e. multisignatures that are just 1 signature onchain). So it might be a good idea to take advantage of them now while we are still fairly safe against quantum computers. It seems likely that quantum-safe signature schemes are nonlinear (thus losing these advantages).

Summary

I Wanna Be The Taprooter!

So, do you want to help activate Taproot? Here's what you, mister sovereign Bitcoin HODLer, can do!

But I Hate Taproot!!

That's fine!

Discussions About Taproot Activation

submitted by almkglor to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

[ Bitcoin ] Technical: Taproot: Why Activate?

Topic originally posted in Bitcoin by almkglor [link]
This is a follow-up on https://old.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/hqzp14/technical_the_path_to_taproot_activation/
Taproot! Everybody wants it!! But... you might ask yourself: sure, everybody else wants it, but why would I, sovereign Bitcoin HODLer, want it? Surely I can be better than everybody else because I swapped XXX fiat for Bitcoin unlike all those nocoiners?
And it is important for you to know the reasons why you, o sovereign Bitcoiner, would want Taproot activated. After all, your nodes (or the nodes your wallets use, which if you are SPV, you hopefully can pester to your wallet vendoimplementor about) need to be upgraded in order for Taproot activation to actually succeed instead of becoming a hot sticky mess.
First, let's consider some principles of Bitcoin.
I'm sure most of us here would agree that the above are very important principles of Bitcoin and that these are principles we would not be willing to remove. If anything, we would want those principles strengthened (especially the last one, financial privacy, which current Bitcoin is only sporadically strong with: you can get privacy, it just requires effort to do so).
So, how does Taproot affect those principles?

Taproot and Your /Coins

Most HODLers probably HODL their coins in singlesig addresses. Sadly, switching to Taproot would do very little for you (it gives a mild discount at spend time, at the cost of a mild increase in fee at receive time (paid by whoever sends to you, so if it's a self-send from a P2PKH or bech32 address, you pay for this); mostly a wash).
(technical details: a Taproot output is 1 version byte + 32 byte public key, while a P2WPKH (bech32 singlesig) output is 1 version byte + 20 byte public key hash, so the Taproot output spends 12 bytes more; spending from a P2WPKH requires revealing a 32-byte public key later, which is not needed with Taproot, and Taproot signatures are about 9 bytes smaller than P2WPKH signatures, but the 32 bytes plus 9 bytes is divided by 4 because of the witness discount, so it saves about 11 bytes; mostly a wash, it increases blockweight by about 1 virtual byte, 4 weight for each Taproot-output-input, compared to P2WPKH-output-input).
However, as your HODLings grow in value, you might start wondering if multisignature k-of-n setups might be better for the security of your savings. And it is in multisignature that Taproot starts to give benefits!
Taproot switches to using Schnorr signing scheme. Schnorr makes key aggregation -- constructing a single public key from multiple public keys -- almost as trivial as adding numbers together. "Almost" because it involves some fairly advanced math instead of simple boring number adding, but hey when was the last time you added up your grocery list prices by hand huh?
With current P2SH and P2WSH multisignature schemes, if you have a 2-of-3 setup, then to spend, you need to provide two different signatures from two different public keys. With Taproot, you can create, using special moon math, a single public key that represents your 2-of-3 setup. Then you just put two of your devices together, have them communicate to each other (this can be done airgapped, in theory, by sending QR codes: the software to do this is not even being built yet, but that's because Taproot hasn't activated yet!), and they will make a single signature to authorize any spend from your 2-of-3 address. That's 73 witness bytes -- 18.25 virtual bytes -- of signatures you save!
And if you decide that your current setup with 1-of-1 P2PKH / P2WPKH addresses is just fine as-is: well, that's the whole point of a softfork: backwards-compatibility; you can receive from Taproot users just fine, and once your wallet is updated for Taproot-sending support, you can send to Taproot users just fine as well!
(P2WPKH and P2WSH -- SegWit v0 -- addresses start with bc1q; Taproot -- SegWit v1 --- addresses start with bc1p, in case you wanted to know the difference; in bech32 q is 0, p is 1)
Now how about HODLers who keep all, or some, of their coins on custodial services? Well, any custodial service worth its salt would be doing at least 2-of-3, or probably something even bigger, like 11-of-15. So your custodial service, if it switched to using Taproot internally, could save a lot more (imagine an 11-of-15 getting reduced from 11 signatures to just 1!), which --- we can only hope! --- should translate to lower fees and better customer service from your custodial service!
So I think we can say, very accurately, that the Bitcoin principle --- that YOU are in control of your money --- can only be helped by Taproot (if you are doing multisignature), and, because P2PKH and P2WPKH remain validly-usable addresses in a Taproot future, will not be harmed by Taproot. Its benefit to this principle might be small (it mostly only benefits multisignature users) but since it has no drawbacks with this (i.e. singlesig users can continue to use P2WPKH and P2PKH still) this is still a nice, tidy win!
(even singlesig users get a minor benefit, in that multisig users will now reduce their blockchain space footprint, so that fees can be kept low for everybody; so for example even if you have your single set of private keys engraved on titanium plates sealed in an airtight box stored in a safe buried in a desert protected by angry nomads riding giant sandworms because you're the frickin' Kwisatz Haderach, you still gain some benefit from Taproot)
And here's the important part: if P2PKH/P2WPKH is working perfectly fine with you and you decide to never use Taproot yourself, Taproot will not affect you detrimentally. First do no harm!

Taproot and Your Contracts

No one is an island, no one lives alone. Give and you shall receive. You know: by trading with other people, you can gain expertise in some obscure little necessity of the world (and greatly increase your productivity in that little field), and then trade the products of your expertise for necessities other people have created, all of you thereby gaining gains from trade.
So, contracts, which are basically enforceable agreements that facilitate trading with people who you do not personally know and therefore might not trust.
Let's start with a simple example. You want to buy some gewgaws from somebody. But you don't know them personally. The seller wants the money, you want their gewgaws, but because of the lack of trust (you don't know them!! what if they're scammers??) neither of you can benefit from gains from trade.
However, suppose both of you know of some entity that both of you trust. That entity can act as a trusted escrow. The entity provides you security: this enables the trade, allowing both of you to get gains from trade.
In Bitcoin-land, this can be implemented as a 2-of-3 multisignature. The three signatories in the multisgnature would be you, the gewgaw seller, and the escrow. You put the payment for the gewgaws into this 2-of-3 multisignature address.
Now, suppose it turns out neither of you are scammers (whaaaat!). You receive the gewgaws just fine and you're willing to pay up for them. Then you and the gewgaw seller just sign a transaction --- you and the gewgaw seller are 2, sufficient to trigger the 2-of-3 --- that spends from the 2-of-3 address to a singlesig the gewgaw seller wants (or whatever address the gewgaw seller wants).
But suppose some problem arises. The seller gave you gawgews instead of gewgaws. Or you decided to keep the gewgaws but not sign the transaction to release the funds to the seller. In either case, the escrow is notified, and if it can sign with you to refund the funds back to you (if the seller was a scammer) or it can sign with the seller to forward the funds to the seller (if you were a scammer).
Taproot helps with this: like mentioned above, it allows multisignature setups to produce only one signature, reducing blockchain space usage, and thus making contracts --- which require multiple people, by definition, you don't make contracts with yourself --- is made cheaper (which we hope enables more of these setups to happen for more gains from trade for everyone, also, moon and lambos).
(technology-wise, it's easier to make an n-of-n than a k-of-n, making a k-of-n would require a complex setup involving a long ritual with many communication rounds between the n participants, but an n-of-n can be done trivially with some moon math. You can, however, make what is effectively a 2-of-3 by using a three-branch SCRIPT: either 2-of-2 of you and seller, OR 2-of-2 of you and escrow, OR 2-of-2 of escrow and seller. Fortunately, Taproot adds a facility to embed a SCRIPT inside a public key, so you can have a 2-of-2 Taprooted address (between you and seller) with a SCRIPT branch that can instead be spent with 2-of-2 (you + escrow) OR 2-of-2 (seller + escrow), which implements the three-branched SCRIPT above. If neither of you are scammers (hopefully the common case) then you both sign using your keys and never have to contact the escrow, since you are just using the escrow public key without coordinating with them (because n-of-n is trivial but k-of-n requires setup with communication rounds), so in the "best case" where both of you are honest traders, you also get a privacy boost, in that the escrow never learns you have been trading on gewgaws, I mean ewww, gawgews are much better than gewgaws and therefore I now judge you for being a gewgaw enthusiast, you filthy gewgawer).

Taproot and Your Contracts, Part 2: Cryptographic Boogaloo

Now suppose you want to buy some data instead of things. For example, maybe you have some closed-source software in trial mode installed, and want to pay the developer for the full version. You want to pay for an activation code.
This can be done, today, by using an HTLC. The developer tells you the hash of the activation code. You pay to an HTLC, paying out to the developer if it reveals the preimage (the activation code), or refunding the money back to you after a pre-agreed timeout. If the developer claims the funds, it has to reveal the preimage, which is the activation code, and you can now activate your software. If the developer does not claim the funds by the timeout, you get refunded.
And you can do that, with HTLCs, today.
Of course, HTLCs do have problems:
Fortunately, with Schnorr (which is enabled by Taproot), we can now use the Scriptless Script constuction by Andrew Poelstra. This Scriptless Script allows a new construction, the PTLC or Pointlocked Timelocked Contract. Instead of hashes and preimages, just replace "hash" with "point" and "preimage" with "scalar".
Or as you might know them: "point" is really "public key" and "scalar" is really a "private key". What a PTLC does is that, given a particular public key, the pointlocked branch can be spent only if the spender reveals the private key of the given private key to you.
Another nice thing with PTLCs is that they are deniable. What appears onchain is just a single 2-of-2 signature between you and the developemanufacturer. It's like a magic trick. This signature has no special watermarks, it's a perfectly normal signature (the pledge). However, from this signature, plus some datta given to you by the developemanufacturer (known as the adaptor signature) you can derive the private key of a particular public key you both agree on (the turn). Anyone scraping the blockchain will just see signatures that look just like every other signature, and as long as nobody manages to hack you and get a copy of the adaptor signature or the private key, they cannot get the private key behind the public key (point) that the pointlocked branch needs (the prestige).
(Just to be clear, the public key you are getting the private key from, is distinct from the public key that the developemanufacturer will use for its funds. The activation key is different from the developer's onchain Bitcoin key, and it is the activation key whose private key you will be learning, not the developer's/manufacturer's onchain Bitcoin key).
So:
Taproot lets PTLCs exist onchain because they enable Schnorr, which is a requirement of PTLCs / Scriptless Script.
(technology-wise, take note that Scriptless Script works only for the "pointlocked" branch of the contract; you need normal Script, or a pre-signed nLockTimed transaction, for the "timelocked" branch. Since Taproot can embed a script, you can have the Taproot pubkey be a 2-of-2 to implement the Scriptless Script "pointlocked" branch, then have a hidden script that lets you recover the funds with an OP_CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY after the timeout if the seller does not claim the funds.)

Quantum Quibbles!

Now if you were really paying attention, you might have noticed this parenthetical:
(technical details: a Taproot output is 1 version byte + 32 byte public key, while a P2WPKH (bech32 singlesig) output is 1 version byte + 20 byte public key hash...)
So wait, Taproot uses raw 32-byte public keys, and not public key hashes? Isn't that more quantum-vulnerable??
Well, in theory yes. In practice, they probably are not.
It's not that hashes can be broken by quantum computes --- they're still not. Instead, you have to look at how you spend from a P2WPKH/P2PKH pay-to-public-key-hash.
When you spend from a P2PKH / P2WPKH, you have to reveal the public key. Then Bitcoin hashes it and checks if this matches with the public-key-hash, and only then actually validates the signature for that public key.
So an unconfirmed transaction, floating in the mempools of nodes globally, will show, in plain sight for everyone to see, your public key.
(public keys should be public, that's why they're called public keys, LOL)
And if quantum computers are fast enough to be of concern, then they are probably fast enough that, in the several minutes to several hours from broadcast to confirmation, they have already cracked the public key that is openly broadcast with your transaction. The owner of the quantum computer can now replace your unconfirmed transaction with one that pays the funds to itself. Even if you did not opt-in RBF, miners are still incentivized to support RBF on RBF-disabled transactions.
So the extra hash is not as significant a protection against quantum computers as you might think. Instead, the extra hash-and-compare needed is just extra validation effort.
Further, if you have ever, in the past, spent from the address, then there exists already a transaction indelibly stored on the blockchain, openly displaying the public key from which quantum computers can derive the private key. So those are still vulnerable to quantum computers.
For the most part, the cryptographers behind Taproot (and Bitcoin Core) are of the opinion that quantum computers capable of cracking Bitcoin pubkeys are unlikely to appear within a decade or two.
So:
For now, the homomorphic and linear properties of elliptic curve cryptography provide a lot of benefits --- particularly the linearity property is what enables Scriptless Script and simple multisignature (i.e. multisignatures that are just 1 signature onchain). So it might be a good idea to take advantage of them now while we are still fairly safe against quantum computers. It seems likely that quantum-safe signature schemes are nonlinear (thus losing these advantages).

Summary

I Wanna Be The Taprooter!

So, do you want to help activate Taproot? Here's what you, mister sovereign Bitcoin HODLer, can do!

But I Hate Taproot!!

That's fine!

Discussions About Taproot Activation

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submitted by anticensor_bot to u/anticensor_bot [link] [comments]

Some very important points that most people do not understand about Bitcoin

Point 1)
Most people do not understand that you can't send money over internet, but only information. Bitcoin is the first digital settlement layer.
When I send a picture to someone on Facebook messenger, I don't actually send a picture. I send information about the pictures structure, and the picture gets restructured on the client side (the cellphone) of the user I send it to. Copy of the information is being sent, not the picture itself. So you can't send money over internet, it is not possible, only information.
If I have a bank account at some bank, and I send $50 dollars to another person in the same bank by using the banks website, then a transaction happens between two people within the same infrastructure, which is the banks back-end system and database. So the banks system just subtracts $50 dollars from one person and adds $50 dollars to another person. But no money has moved, only information has been edited. But if I send money to someone that uses another Bank, then this bank has its own infrastructure which is independent of the first. So Bank1 tells Bank2 that they have a user that wants to send money to a user of the other bank. So Bank1 subtracts $50 from User1, and Bank2 adds $50 to User2, but now Bank1 owes Bank2 $50, why? Because you can't send money over internet. So they have to settle the difference between them with some kind of a settlement system, (cash, gold or a third party like a central bank). This difference can be the result of many transactions between many users and can be millions of dollars of worth, the settlement can be done periodically for example every 6 months.
With Bitcoin, because of how the system works, it is almost as if you can send value over internet for the first time, even though you don't really send value, you still send information, but since the infrastructure is global, it is like the first example, it is as if the world has (one large bank infrastructure), that is fully automated and which no one controls.
This alone makes Bitcoin extremely valuable, because it is a trust less digital settlement layer which is extremely secure and not dependent on one particular nation or organisation.
Point 2)
There can never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. This is very hard for people to grasp. Because what do you mean there can never be more than 21 million bitcoin? It sounds like a game, such a scam... People do not understand that Bitcoin is not normal software. In normal software the developers can change the code as they want and publish the code when they want. They do not understand that Bitcoin is a software that is not like a normal software. You can't actually change the number even if the number is programmed in. Which of-course most people will deny, because it makes no sense for most people. They do not understand that even though it is theoretically possible to change it, it is practically almost impossible. It is theoretically possible for me to convince half of Sweden to burn half of their money, but practically impossible. Just because something is theoretically possible, doesn't mean that it will happen within a time frame, or even in your lifetime. In order for the 21 million supply to change, most people in the Bitcoin community needs to agree on it, which is practically impossible. Miners have to change to the new protocol and so on. Not going to happen.
When gold treasures were lost in the past, someone else could find them. Gold practically never completely disappears, it is a chemical element. With Bitcoin, once it is lost it is practically lost forever (put aside quantum computing for now and other theoretical unforeseeable events). 21 million is only the upper theoretical limit. Bitcoin will be more and more scarce as time goes by. Gold is not like this. Gold has an inflation rate of 1,5% every year. The reason it is constant is because even if the stock gets bigger, the flow into the stock also gets bigger because of better mining capabilities, so you can look at it as constant inflation of 1.5% every year. With Bitcoin, not only do the stock to flow ratio go up every halvening, and the flow into bitcoin not only decreases with time, but almost goes into negative because of lost coins every year. This is completely insane and people do not understand this. If you combine this almost deflationary nature of Bitcoin with extreme bullish market sentiment then you will realize that no one knows what is going to happen in the future because wrapping your head around all this and to come to a conclusion about the Bitcoin price will make you sound absolutely delusional to most people.
Point 3)
People think that $100,000 bitcoin is wishful thinking and that there is not enough money in the world for Bitcoin to be worth millions of dollars. Which I can assure you is false. Bitcoin can even be worth $50 million dollars per coin, which would make 2 satoshi 1 dollar. Even if one Bitcoin transaction would cost 10 000 Satoshi. You might say, that's not possible, whats the point if one transaction is so expensive. Again, you don't need to actually do a transfer of money, as in the first example of point 1, virtual transactions on bank level can happen, or on Coinbase. You can send 100 satoshi to someone and pay 1 satoshi in fee "on the bank level", not on chain, banks or exchanges then will settle the difference as they want. At least with Bitcoin you have the option to be you own bank, even if that will cost you more, you still have the option. This is already happening in front of your eyes. Banks like Dutch ING, Deutsche bank, are already working on custody services for cryptocurrencies. And even exchanges want to operate as banks and exchanges like Coinbase are working to get license for this. This is already happening and it is the correct move forwards, a mix between the legacy banking system and cryptocurrencies. You can already spend your Bitcoin with Coinbase Visa Card or similar services. Most people are too lazy and stupid to operate like us with their own wallets, it is a fact well known.
In terms of the price, money inflow is not the same as market cap. Take for instance the following simple scenario. I own 100% of the shares of my own company and I decide to sell 10% of the company for 1 million USD, which will value my whole company at 10 million USD, so 1 million flow into my company leads to 10x market cap of 10 million USD. For Bitcoin to have 21 trillion market cap, Bitcoin does not need 21 trillion of money inflow. Bitcoin price is dependent on market sentiment, if the market sentiment is such that very few people want to sell their coins because the price keeps going up then you might have 100x market cap of the money inflow. So 1 billion USD in money inflow translates to 100 billion USD in market cap. The multiplier can be 10x, 2x or 50x, all depends on market sentiment and time period. So an inflow of 10 trillion USD in 10 years might lead to 100 trillion USD market cap of BTC and 5 million USD per Bitcoin.
Bitcoin value have no roof, the price might actually just keep going up and up and up and up and up. We have never had something that is absolutely scarce, and global, and seen as an alternative form of money, when the rest of the world keeps bubbling up. There is no limit on the BTC price because the whole world works with a bubbly system, and the way Bitcoin is price discovered, is a guaranteed insane BTC price in the future. Even $100 million USD per Bitcoin in 50 years before I am dead is possible.
Point 4)
Fiat does not need to die, and Bitcoin does not need to take over in order for Bitcoin to have "ridiculous price". No financial crisis is needed. Actually what you want is things to just continue as they have done in the last 10 years. No too extreme events. Just "small events" here and there. You can't change human nature, it is inevitable. Bitcoin is so ingrained into our world that there is no way back. There will be people with whole Bitcoin, and people without. Just like people with gold and stock investments and real estate, and people without those things. No insane events, this is all normal.
Point 5)
Bitcoin has won as the financial cryptocurrency. No flippening will happen. The only flippening will be with gold and fiat currencies. If I wanted to, I could have developed a system like PayPal in 1 month time, and it would be able to do 5000 transactions per second because I would use MySQL and SSD, but no one would use my service because they would not trust me because they have no idea who I am and what my service is, and there is no one to send money too, so the network is not there. Bitcoin has won because security and network effect is way more important than transactions per second. Transactions per second will be dealt with on bank level, exchange level, or layer 2 solutions. This is already clear to me. Bitcoin has won.
Point 6)
In order to understand Bitcoin and what will happen in the future, you have to be able to see things that are not in front of you. You can't compare Bitcoin to Tulip mania, or even Gold. Because something like Bitcoin has never existed before and you have to think about it's properties and try to understand it with human nature and with how the world works and how everything keeps increasing, and Bitcoin is the thing that does not increase in supply. You will eventually accept the unnatural thought of Bitcoin never stopping going up in value, which is something that is hard to come to terms with, because it feels unnatural, "and it could not possibly be so".
Point 7)
The Gini coefficient of Bitcoin is not a big deal. I used to think that it was unfair that some people had 1,000 BTC, 10,000 BTC, or even 50,000 BTC. And I was afraid that they might dump their coins into the market and crash it. I have now realised that these people are smart people and they think like me, and they won't just dump their whole BTC holding on the market as that might be a very bad move for them. It is like when a majority holder of a company, like Jeff Bezos and Amazon, understands that he can't sell all of his shares in one go as that would effect Amazon stock value too much and would not be smart. It is best to sell when the price goes up, but then when they sell the BTC will just be eaten up by other people, and they will be at a loss in the longer term. And the other thing is that perhaps there is no other smart place to put that fiat money, Bitcoin might just be the best place to keep those amounts of money. Someone with a very large holding has two options. He can either sell his BTC, in which case the price would go down but the Bitcoin would be spread out between potentially thousands of new users, or he might decide to never sell. If he decides to never sell, it is as if those Bitcoins are lost forever and that is good for the Bitcoin price and Bitcoin in general. If he decides to sell then Bitcoin will be divided more equally among many users which is also a good thing for Bitcoin because that increases the network effect, and after he sells he no longer has the power to drive the price down, but now he sits on a very large fiat holding, he might even buy back at a higher price and drive the price higher. I know that if I had 10,000 BTC, I would sell 1,000 BTC and buy a house and a car and whatever I wanted, and sell another 1,000 BTC to diversify into some other assets. And keep 8,000 BTC because I don't know of anywhere else to put that kind of money into good work. I believe in Bitcoin so as an investor it makes sense to keep it here. I probably would never sell because I would never need anything else after the initial 1,000 BTC sell.
Bitcoin is like a black hole that sucks in the Earths monetary resources over time. Most people that bought really early and were smart enough to hold all the way to these prices will only sell what they need to sell and keep the rest in BTC. Some of them might want to speculate and try to time the ATH, only to buy back in with most of the fiat they sold. Which means that even if money goes out of the market, it only goes out of the market temporarily, only to get back in at hopefully lower prices. And so the market grows, and grows and grows over time.
Point 8)
Bitcoin has intrinsic value. When people like Peter Schiff say that gold has intrinsic value because gold can be used in electronics and aviation and therefore gold has value but Bitcoin has no value because it has no intrinsic value, you have to take a pause and do some critical thinking. Can you imagine 16th century pirates looking to find a gold treasure worth an insane amount because they knew gold had value because of electronics and aviation? This is clearly absurd. Gold has been used as money for thousands of years and electronics and aviation was not even a thing 150 years ago. Gold has value because it is globally scarce. Bitcoin is absolutely verifiable scarce. Bitcoin has intrinsic value because of it's monetary policy and because you can carry millions of dollars of value by remembering only 24 words in your head, and carry that value wherever you want and no one can stop you, that is intrinsic value.
People had a hard time understanding that a website like Facebook could be worth billions of dollars, because it was not physical, it was "just a website". Even a website like Google search is not physical and still it has immense value. It is valuable information and it provides a good service, and that has value, it does not have to be physical and tangible.
submitted by 21btc to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Electricity : Fan Theory

First off I'll start off by saying I truly believe this show to be a case of "the plot doesn't matter", it serves rather, as an engine that fuels exploration into bigger picture stuff -- commentary on capitalism, a mirror to examine our own emotion as shown through character's reactions to events. So if I'm way off base here it doesn't matter and if i'm spot on it doesn't matter.
Nonetheless, I'm going to attempt and present what may serve as a means of "understanding" the why of the season finale.
The cosmic error we were informed of this season, twins, is also seen in computers, these technically are called soft errors, but they are sometimes caused by cosmic rays. Essentially, cosmic rays have a statistically significant chance to change a piece of data stored in memory. This change in data has the power to change the way a system runs if not checked and corrected but does not imply it has affected it or will whether or not it is caught or if that data can not be recovered.
Twins present a "cosmic error" because where one sperm enters, two babies leave. The race condition of millions of sperm trying to fertilize an egg is solved by simply allowing only one sperm to do so (most of the time, maybe it happens, idk). But that doesn't stop a random split from happening that can potentially put the mom's life at greater risk of failing to give birth by doubling the load.
Concurrency in computer programming is where two processes are able to run simultaneously. A race condition is made when those two processes enter a critical part of their execution at the same time, that is to say try to access the same piece of data from memory at the same time. Put simply, if you and friend each opened a cupboard, checked how many apples were stored, add a number of apples, each exclusively, and mark down how many should now be in the cupboard you both should know how many are in the cupboard right? Nope. If there's one in the cupboard and you add two, you've marked down that there are 3 apples in the cupboard. However, your friend has decided to put one and did it before you put yours back. Now you and your friend both don't know how many apples are in the cupboard, as he thinks there are two when both of you are wrong -- there's four. So the next time you both go back to check your data is completely unreliable and subsequent calculations will compound how incorrect you are. Even if you both end up with the correct number at the end, it's a fluke and more still missing the error. This only makes sense if you take a literal blind approach in which is you only can see what was stored once when opening it and cannot double check what was written down, you have to trust what was stored after opening as it should match what's written down. The answer in programming can't always be store it twice in memory (here memory means random access, not disk stored).
One way of solving this is through the implementation of mutual exclusion, also called a mutex. The simplest example of a mutex, both actually and in our example is putting a lock on the cupboard with a single key you must use to unlock when checking, lock while adding apples, and then give up so your friend might access the cupboard. This ensures that you both have the right data each time you check. I'm skipping over some stuff because the piece that's important is that only one can be inside at any given time.
Semaphores are another way of achieving this, but instead of using a key a system of counting is put into place. this is done by knowing how many of a given resource are available at any given time and recording it. Currency, often believed to be rooted in a gold standard, uses this system to account for inflation or whatever. Funny enough bitcoin actually IS founded on a gold standard. One that so far can not be manipulated. Alchemy presents a logical problem for this, since gold cannot be created through chemistry and thus there is a finite amount of it. Same way there is a finite amount of bitcoin that will ever enter circulation.
Today, gold is still thought of as valuable. It's brought up early on in the series by Dud that the more gold that exists the less special it is, and thus would lose its value. One of the most historically valuable properties of gold is its malleability, and prettyness which allowed for more ornate objects of beauty to be crafted without the need for advanced smelting and casting. Today that is of much less concern.
Silver, on the other hand, in today's modern age, has the advantage of being the most electrically conductive metal we know about. Second comes copper and in third is gold. Guess which one we use most often in circuitry and in wiring buildings. Conductivity is literally based on the Silver standard.
While in many ways Dud may be seen as inferior to Liz, intelligence wise, money wise -- double down on a bad interest loan by paying it off with a worse interest loan vs. paying it off slowly and painfully, etc. He is often seen to be coming out ahead in terms of sheer happiness and fortitude where Liz cannot. If one sperm in a race produced two non identical babies, neither inherently came in first from the get go. As I said above, neither metal, gold or silver, wins in terms of actual utility in the conductivity battle. However, Dud enters the lodge first, and gets struck by lightning.
Given the information we are given in the first season we are not made privy to a lot of things that become important. Primarily, that the scrolls might be the solution to cracking bitcoin and thus disrupting its backed worth based on the gold standard. So, here, the "cosmic error" of twins and the challenge it presents in this concurrent system is brought into the main stage. Liz and Dud are both on a quest but neither really knows what or why. Both survive extreme conditions they are put in both voluntarily and involuntarily respectively.
This all changes when Liz enters the Lodge. Up until this point Liz has not entered the lodge out of her own "choice", free will arguments here be damned. She doesn't go in because she doesn't care. It takes Dud not answering her texts for her to enter and when she does so the Lodge corrects for it.
If detected, a soft error may be totally recovered from, but if the system has crashed, the computer needs to be "rebooted" before any data correction can occur. If they were both in the Lodge at the same time due to a cosmic error which, in terms of my example above, changes the number of apples in the cupboard while it's locked or changes the total number of apples available. If they weren't physically in the Lodge at the same time holds no bearing, it's that they were a part of the lodge. As long as Liz is accessing the Lodge Dud cannot. While humans allegedly built the Lodge, it is impossibly complex to the point where it has literal doors it can throw you backwards out of, possibly as a way of rebirth and possibly as a way of creating a "plant". Liz just as easily could have not been kept on her feet had her friends not been there the same way Duds was from his near death experiences, however they were there.
For a door that opens out, and that no one knows how to access, it sure as shit is not protected from the obvious safety-precaution; securing it from being opened from the outside. Maybe it has been attempted but it just always fell down. But when the light next to the door is being repaired for safety reasons it's not like anyone says hey if we don't know where this door leads and idk, maybe we have some voluntarily blind girl living and running around fixing her seizure problems like, let's maybe just take care of fix this other hazard.
Brute force is used to open doors all over the place in the show, even as far as being used as a "lockpick" (axe), but is never used to unlock THAT door, at least successfully or on screen. Maybe it can't be bruteforced the same way brute force can't be used to cheat bitcoin (it can't, at least today). Quantum computing poses a very real threat to this, and actually every "lock" we think is secure. Like, won't get into it too much and it's not this simple but imagine just asking the computer what your neighbors wifi password is and it just gives you the answer without having to try an approaching infinite number of possible solutions. A very real threat to bitcoin and as a matter of fact all modern encryption, however to scare you less if we're smart enough to pull it off we're at least smart enough to solve the problem before we get there (i've been assured by our friends at google that their contingency plans can't fail, they also told me the titanic never sank)

This at least approaches an explanation to the apparent deus ex machina that is Dud's death. The Lodge is not a joke, and has real control of things. While running it exposes powerful implications into the lives of its members and those around them. I think it's clear here that the duty of the knights of the lodge, to protect it, has greater meaning than we know.

To this same affect, we see another parallel for modern networked computing to work reliably -- redundancy. One man cannot keep the Lodge alive himself, nor can dwindling numbers of protectors. So make more of them, and why not spread them out so if an entire area is affected by say 10 hurricanes at once, it doesn't take down the whole lodge and working knowledge of things. Redundancy in computing means basically the same thing, keep servers in more than one place and have the data they serve backed up and available in more than one place. This also mitigates the probability of data loss, though not entirely. As the lodge in London had no idea the scrolls were removed and the xeroxes made may have gone the way of Orbis, and potentially only one copy of until they were recovered in Mexico.

So far, my only intention has been to make parallels that may have not been made so excuse me while I hurl myself over the side of the boat and bring this to my conclusion on what to make of all this. Skip ahead 2 paragraphs to ignore it.
Simulation Theory. As the always headstrong u/L_Marvin_Metz says so poignantly says "the earth is hollow". While, maybe meant to be taken at face value, it probably isn't. But figuratively speaking, definitely. So many of life's pursuits are hollow and we often see characters in the show being punished for these impure pursuits. What else could allow for impossible tunnels, resurrection, portals and magic? A lot of things but nonetheless, Simulation theory would also give a lot for credence to all the talk about "getting out", a reason why Liz and Dud can't be in the Lodge at the same time beyond some deus ex machina. Liz needs a reason to figure out the system and for her it's finding her brother. Whether or not she can (probably can't, if he is rebooted/born again why would that be up to us). Or that's what I'm going to postulate for season 3.
Either way the scrolls are there because of reasons no one intended, and all that talk about destiny and painting the future but not getting to actually make it up begin to make sense. The lodge will fulfill its purpose because it already has. The absurdity of simulation theory requires the possibility of multiple layers of simulation, as above and so too is below, also begins to make sense in this context. This could literally go anywhere so I'm gonna stop at this point. Dud is dead, for now in a sense. However, that's if him crashing out of that door covered in dirt wasn't just him falling out in the same sequence we observer it.
There may have been for a way less complex reason than I am making - that being actor availability and the inability to pay the highly in-demand Wyatt Russell both for opportunity cost on a show with a future unknown and for his actual need to have a minimum price that the show may not be able to pay.
However limited his role is has yet to be seen, and hopefully for the sake of everything will be seen next year, but we saw him get an emmy nomination in the finale -- at least I truly believe that (specifically when he denied the knighthood). But it could be from any episode this season probably. If he takes home the gold who knows what that extra prestige will do to any budgetary restraints on AMC's wallet in the future. Clearly he likes being in this show, so I see know reason why he wouldn't return as a lead if i'm at all correct about any of this.
Point of this being that we have no idea if any of this is intentional, if it was written in due to the unknown future of the show even after being renewed last year, always the plan, or not even touching on the plan. That's why deus ex machina can be both brilliant and convenient (Adaptation). If you execute it well, we, as an audience, can't say for certain how it entered the arena. I mean, specifically as a season finale. Plenty of other examples of it in the show, obviously. almost like it's part of a greater theme?
submitted by solarus to Lodge49 [link] [comments]

Information and FAQ

Welcome to the official IOTA subreddit.
If you are new you can find lots of information here, in the sidebar and please use the search button to see if your questions have been asked before. Please focus discussion on IOTA technology, ecosystem announcements, project development, apps, etc. Please direct help questions to /IOTASupport, and price discussions and market talk to /IOTAmarkets.
Before getting started it is recommended to read the IOTA_Whitepaper.pdf. I also suggest watching these videos first to gain a better understanding.
IOTA BREAKDOWN: The Tangle Vs. Blockchain Explained
IOTA tutorial 1: What is IOTA and some terminology explained

Information

Firstly, what is IOTA?

IOTA is an open-source distributed ledger protocol launched in 2015 that goes 'beyond blockchain' through its core invention of the blockless ‘Tangle’. The IOTA Tangle is a quantum-resistant Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), whose digital currency 'iota' has a fixed money supply with zero inflationary cost.
IOTA uniquely offers zero-fee transactions & no fixed limit on how many transactions can be confirmed per second. Scaling limitations have been removed, since throughput grows in conjunction with activity; the more activity, the more transactions can be processed & the faster the network. Further, unlike blockchain architecture, IOTA has no separation between users and validators (miners / stakers); rather, validation is an intrinsic property of using the ledger, thus avoiding centralization.
IOTA is focused on being useful for the emerging machine-to-machine (m2m) economy of the Internet-of-Things (IoT), data integrity, micro-/nano- payments, and other applications where a scalable decentralized system is warranted.
More information can be found here.

Seeds

A seed is a unique identifier that can be described as a combined username and password that grants you access to your IOTA.
Your seed is used to generate the addresses and private keys you will use to store and send IOTA, so this should be kept private and not shared with anyone. If anyone obtains your seed, they can generate the private keys associated with your addresses and access your IOTA.

Non reusable addresses

Contrary to traditional blockchain based systems such as Bitcoin, where your wallet addresses can be reused, IOTA's addresses should only be used once (for outgoing transfers). That means there is no limit to the number of transactions an address can receive, but as soon as you've used funds from that address to make a transaction, this address should not be used anymore.
Why?
When an address is used to make an outgoing transaction, a random 50% of the private key of that particular address is revealed in the transaction signature, which effectively reduces the security of the key. A typical IOTA private key of 81-trits has 2781 possible combinations ( 8.7 x 10115 ) but after a single use, this number drops to around 2754 ( 2 x 1077 ), which coincidentally is close to the number of combinations of a 256-bit Bitcoin private key. Hence, after a single use an IOTA private key has about the same level of security as that of Bitcoin and is basically impractical to brute-force using modern technology. However, after a second use, another random 50% of the private key is revealed and the number of combinations that an attacker has to guess decreases very sharply to approximately 1.554 (~3 billion) which makes brute-forcing trivial even with an average computer.
Note: your seed is never revealed at at time; only private keys specific to each address.
The current light wallet prevents address reuse automatically for you by doing 2 things:
  1. Whenever you make an outgoing transaction from an address that does not consume its entire balance (e.g. address holds 10 Mi but you send only 5 Mi), the wallet automatically creates a new address and sends the change (5 Mi) to the new address.
  2. The wallet prevents you from performing a second outgoing transaction using the same address (it will display a “Private key reuse detected!” error).
This piggy bank diagram can help visualize non reusable addresses. imgur link
[Insert new Safe analogy].

Address Index

When a new address is generated it is calculated from the combination of a seed + Address Index, where the Address Index can be any positive Integer (including "0"). The wallet usually starts from Address Index 0, but it will skip any Address Index where it sees that the corresponding address has already been attached to the tangle.

Private Keys

Private keys are derived from a seeds key index. From that private key you then generate an address. The key index starting at 0, can be incremented to get a new private key, and thus address.
It is important to keep in mind that all security-sensitive functions are implemented client side. What this means is that you can generate private keys and addresses securely in the browser, or on an offline computer. All libraries provide this functionality.
IOTA uses winternitz one-time signatures, as such you should ensure that you know which private key (and which address) has already been used in order to not reuse it. Subsequently reusing private keys can lead to the loss of funds (an attacker is able to forge the signature after continuous reuse).
Exchanges are advised to store seeds, not private keys.

FAQ

Buying IOTA

How do I to buy IOTA?

Currently not all exchanges support IOTA and those that do may not support the option to buy with fiat currencies.
Visit this website for a Guide: How to buy IOTA
or Click Here for a detailed guide made by 450LbsGorilla

Cheapest way to buy IOTA?

You can track the current cheapest way to buy IOTA at IOTA Prices.
It tells you where & how to get the most IOTA for your money right now. There's an overview of the exchanges available to you and a buying guide to help you along.
IOTAPrices.com monitors all major fiat exchanges for their BTC & ETH rates and combines them with current IOTA rates from IOTA exchanges for easy comparison. Rates are taken directly from each exchange's official websocket. For fiat exchanges or exchanges that don't offer websockets, rates are refreshed every 60 seconds.

What is MIOTA?

MIOTA is a unit of IOTA, 1 Mega IOTA or 1 Mi. It is equivalent to 1,000,000 IOTA and is the unit which is currently exchanged.
We can use the metric prefixes when describing IOTA e.g 2,500,000,000 i is equivalent to 2.5 Gi.
Note: some exchanges will display IOTA when they mean MIOTA.

Can I mine IOTA?

No you can not mine IOTA, all the supply of IOTA exist now and no more can be made.
If you want to send IOTA, your 'fee' is you have to verify 2 other transactions, thereby acting like a minenode.

Storing IOTA

Where should I store IOTA?

It is not recommended to store large amounts of IOTA on the exchange as you will not have access to the private keys of the addresses generated.

Wallets

GUI Desktop (Full Node + Light Node)
Version = 2.5.6
Download: GUI v2.5.6
Guide: Download/Login Guide
Nodes: Status
Headless IRI (Full Node)
Version = 1.4.1.4
Download: Mainnet v1.4.1.4
Guide:
Find Neighbours: /nodesharing
UCL Desktop/Android/iOS (Light Node)
Version = Private Alpha Testing
Website: iota-ucl (Medium)
Android (Light Node)
Version = Beta
Download: Google Play
iOS (Light Node)
Version = Beta Testing
Website: https://iota.tools/wallet
Paper Wallet
Version = v1.3.6
Repo: GitHub
Seed Vault
Version = v1.0.2
Repo: GitHub7

What is a seed?

A seed is a unique identifier that can be described as a combined username and password that grants you access to your wallet.
Your seed is used to generate the addresses linked to your account and so this should be kept private and not shared with anyone. If anyone obtains your seed, they can login and access your IOTA.

How do I generate a seed?

You must generate a random 81 character seed using only A-Z and the number 9.
It is recommended to use offline methods to generate a seed, and not recommended to use any non community verified techniques. To generate a seed you could:

On a Linux Terminal

use the following command:
 cat /dev/urandom |tr -dc A-Z9|head -c${1:-81} 

On a Mac Terminal

use the following command:
 cat /dev/urandom |LC_ALL=C tr -dc 'A-Z9' | fold -w 81 | head -n 1 

With KeePass on PC

A helpful guide for generating a secure seed on KeePass can be found here.

With a dice

Dice roll template

Is my seed secure?

  1. All seeds should be 81 characters in random order composed of A-Z and 9.
  2. Do not give your seed to anyone, and don’t keep it saved in a plain text document.
  3. Don’t input your seed into any websites that you don’t trust.
Is Someone Going To Guess My IOTA Seed?
What are the odds of someone guessing your seed?
  • IOTA seed = 81 characters long, and you can use A-Z, 9
  • Giving 2781 = 8.7x10115 possible combinations for IOTA seeds
  • Now let's say you have a "super computer" letting you generate and read every address associated with 1 trillion different seeds per second.
  • 8.7x10115 seeds / 1x1012 generated per second = 8.7x10103 seconds = 2.8x1096 years to process all IOTA seeds.

Why does balance appear to be 0 after a snapshot?

When a snapshot happens, all transactions are being deleted from the Tangle, leaving only the record of how many IOTA are owned by each address. However, the next time the wallet scans the Tangle to look for used addresses, the transactions will be gone because of the snapshot and the wallet will not know anymore that an address belongs to it. This is the reason for the need to regenerate addresses, so that the wallet can check the balance of each address. The more transactions were made before a snapshot, the further away the balance moves from address index 0 and the more addresses have to be (re-) generated after the snapshot.

What happens if you reuse an address?

It is important to understand that only outgoing transactions reveal the private key and incoming transactions do not. If you somehow manage to receive iotas using an address after having used it previously to send iotas—let's say your friend sends iotas to an old address of yours—these iotas may be at risk.
Recall that after a single use an iota address still has the equivalent of 256-bit security (like Bitcoin) so technically, the iotas will still be safe if you do not try to send them out. However, you would want to move these iotas out eventually and the moment you try to send them out, your private key will be revealed a second time and it now becomes feasible for an attacker to brute-force the private key. If someone is monitoring your address and spots a second use, they can easily crack the key and then use it to make a second transaction that will compete with yours. It then becomes a race to see whose transaction gets confirmed first.
Note: The current wallet prevents you from reusing an address to make a second transaction so any iotas you receive with a 'used' address will be stuck. This is a feature of wallet and has nothing to do with the fundamental workings of IOTA.

Sending IOTA

What does attach to the tangle mean?

The process of making an transaction can be divided into two main steps:
  1. The local signing of a transaction, for which your seed is required.
  2. Taking the prepared transaction data, choosing two transactions from the tangle and doing the POW. This step is also called “attaching”.
The following analogy makes it easier to understand:
Step one is like writing a letter. You take a piece of paper, write some information on it, sign it at the bottom with your signature to authenticate that it was indeed you who wrote it, put it in an envelope and then write the recipient's address on it.
Step two: In order to attach our “letter” (transaction), we go to the tangle, pick randomly two of the newest “letters” and tie a connection between our “letter” and each of the “letters” we choose to reference.
The “Attach address” function in the wallet is actually doing nothing else than making an 0 value transaction to the address that is being attached.

Why is my transaction pending?

IOTA's current Tangle implementation (IOTA is in constant development, so this may change in the future) has a confirmation rate that is ~66% at first attempt.
So, if a transaction does not confirm within 1 hour, it is necessary to "reattach" (also known as "replay") the transaction one time. Doing so one time increases probability of confirmation from ~66% to ~89%.
Repeating the process a second time increases the probability from ~89% to ~99.9%.

How do I reattach a transaction.

Reattaching a transaction is different depending on where you send your transaction from. To reattach using the GUI Desktop wallet follow these steps:
  1. Click 'History'.
  2. Click 'Show Bundle' on the 'pending' transaction.
  3. Click 'Reattach'.
  4. Click 'Rebroadcast'. (optional, usually not required)
  5. Wait 1 Hour.
  6. If still 'pending', repeat steps 1-5 once more.

Does the private key get revealed each time you reattach a transaction?

When you use the reattach function in the desktop wallet, a new transaction will be created but it will have the same signature as the original transaction and hence, your private key will not revealed a second time.

What happens to pending transactions after a snapshot?

IOTA Network and Nodes

What incentives are there for running a full node?

IOTA is made for m2m economy, once wide spread adoption by businesses and the IOT, there will be a lot of investment by these businesses to support the IOTA network. In the meantime if you would like to help the network and speed up p2p transactions at your own cost, you can support the IOTA network by setting up a Full Node.
Running a full node also means you don't have to trust a 3rd party light node provider. By running a full node you get to take advantage of new features that might not be installed on 3rd party nodes.

How to set up a full node?

To set up a full node you will need to follow these steps:
  1. Download the full node software: either GUI, or headless CLI for lower system requirements and better performance.
  2. Get a static IP for your node.
  3. Join the network by adding 7-9 neighbours.
  4. Keep your full node up and running as much as possible.
A detailed user guide on how to set up a VTS IOTA Full Node from scratch can be found here.

How do I get a static IP?

To learn how to setup a hostname (~static IP) so you can use the newest IOTA versions that have no automated peer discovery please follow this guide.

How do I find a neighbour?

Are you a single IOTA full node looking for a partner? You can look for partners in these place:

Resources

You can find a wiki I have been making here.
More to come...
If you have any contributions or spot a mistake or clarification, please PM me or leave a comment.
submitted by Boltzmanns_Constant to Iota [link] [comments]

What is a better investment, Bitcoin or Ethereum?

Ethereum.
Before I explain why, I need you to understand something. Bitcoin and Ethereum are at two completely different stages within their potential. They also do not share the exact same mission; therefore, you do have to understand their differences to form an opinion about which one has the biggest use.
Before we look at the coins in detail, let's start with the potential ROI (100% = 2x Original Investment).
Bitcoin’s current market cap is $193,165,354,468 in order for you to make 100% this number would need to double to just under $400 Billion.
Ethereum’s current market cap is $44,715,990,083 , roughly 1/5th of Bitcoins. In order for you to make 100%, the price would need to increase to just under $90 Billion. - This is obviously more probable.
This will not serve as the only variable in making a decision, we now need to break down their uses and differences.
Bitcoin
What is Bitcoin?
A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without the burdens of going through a financial institution. Digital signatures provide part of the solution, but the main benefits are lost if a trusted party is still required to prevent double-spending. We propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer network. The network timestamps transactions by hashing them into an ongoing chain of hash-based proof-of-work, forming a record that cannot be changed without redoing the proof-of-work. The longest chain not only serves as proof of the sequence of events witnessed, but proof that it came from the largest pool of CPU power. As long as honest nodes control the most CPU power on the network, they can generate the longest chain and outpace any attackers. The network itself requires minimal structure. Messages are broadcasted on a best effort basis, and nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the longest proof-of-work chain as proof of what happened while they were gone.
Peer-to-Peer (P2P): is a technical way of saying computers (peers) that are connected together via the internet.
Timestamps: are a sequence of characters that identify exactly when a certain event occurred, giving the exact time and date.
Hashing: is the process of compacting large quantities of data into smaller fixed sizes.
Proof-of-work: is the verification that the individual peer created the said hash
Nodes: are computers that are connected to the blockchain
Bitcoin is a first generation cryptocurrency, that was created in 2009 with the intention to become the currency of the internet.
Its Applications
Safe Haven
Being that billions of people are under the control of a broke economy or volatile dictatorship, Bitcoin is beginning to become a medium in which people within underdeveloped countries feel as a more secure place to store their value.
Remittances
The current operation costs roughly $600B annually, all at the expense of separated families. Bitcoin can now serve as a tool that operates the exact same way and only costs 1/10th of the price.
A transaction on the Bitcoin network also processes faster therefore giving the people a strong reason to make the switch.
Currency
Bitcoin is recognized as an asset, but can also be identified as an efficient currency in which people can buy and exchange with. With this being an application of Bitcoin, as the market continues to decrease in volatility, the use for Bitcoin will increase within businesses and everyday people that transact on a daily basis.
These are just a few, but for the sake of answer length, let’s move onto some of the scalability issues with Bitcoin that hinder my decision of choosing Bitcoin over Ethereum.
Bothering Issues with Bitcoin
Energy
A study from Digiconomist found that each transaction on the Bitcoin blockchain uses 236 KWh worth of electricity, this amount is enough to power 8 U.S households for an entire day.
Scalability
Energy consumption will hinder the scalability issues of Bitcoin, however the other issue that arises with POW mining is that with the increase in cost associated with mining BTC it is less economical to mine Bitcoin. This would limit the distributed nodes (miners) globally and allow a larger percentage of control to the dominant mining pools / farms.
This would lead to a more centralized blockchain, where they can change the rules of BTC as they please.
The supply of Bitcoin is finite, capped at 21 million. Eventually (currently predicted for 2140) Bitcoin's supply will run out. Once this happens, miners will no longer receive rewards for completing blocks but instead will be given fees. The fees will be drastically high in relative terms, and people will stop using the blockchain.
Also, if miners decide that this is uneconomical for them to process the transactions and use their computing power elsewhere the speed of transactions for Bitcoin will drastically slow down, rendering one of the fundamental values of a Bitcoin (speed) useless.
Blue chip Companies
This is more so for all cryptocurrencies, but Bitcoin in particular. It’s not a matter of if but a matter of when a blue-chip company such as Facebook, Amazon or Google decides to implement their own cryptocurrency.
Another possibility is a potential ‘world coin’ which global governments will all agree on using, this may seem unrealistic but it is definitely not impossible and many benefits would arise from having such a currency.
Quantum Computing
Bitcoin is said to be Quantum resistant, on the whitepaper it mentions that:
‘To compensate for increasing hardware speed and varying interest in running nodes over time, the proof-of-work difficulty is determined by a moving average targeting an average number of blocks per hour. If they're generated too fast, the difficulty increases.’
This may seem quantum resistant but it is important to understand that the difficulty is changed every 10 minutes and this is more than enough time for QC to mine all of Bitcoin’s remaining coins.
Bitcoin Bubble
The last point of this section is to recognize that the Bitcoin bubble could pop loud enough to crash the market. Due to a whole lot of hype, and even more speculative and uneducated buyers, Bitcoin could face a peak in which a simple spark
Ethereum
What is Ethereum?
Ethereum is an open source platform with the mission to build and inspire next-generation decentralized applications. In other words, the applications being built on the Ethereum network would have no middle men. Users are able to interact safely with social and financial systems to transact peer to peer, therefore opening a new realm of opportunity within decentralized development on specifically the exchange of value.
Like the Bitcoin network exchanges Bitcoin, applications within the Ethereum network would exchange ETHER. Therefore, making the Ethereum network have its own digital currency or, cryptocurrency that these decentralized applications would run on.
On the Ethereum network, developers are able to build these decentralized applications simply, within this seemingly complicated new technology. Think of it as Shopify or Volusion, these are centralized networks in which users/developers can build e-commerce stores more efficiently and cost effectively.
Ethereum is similar in this aspect, the network was essentially created to assist and fuel the growth of decentralized blockchain applications within its network.
Smart Contracts
Now, what Ethereum is based on, is a thing called “Smart Contracts”
Developers are extremely excited about this tool, a smart contract is similar to how it sounds, it’s a digital contract that self-executes… Think of it as a virtual vending machine.
A smart contract is a digital contract between two people in which the technology or tool handles the management, performance, enforcement and payment of the agreement. The smart contract has its own digital bank account of ETHER and settles once the product is received or the service is completed therefore greatly improving the efficiency of data tracking, payment processing and user friendliness of each decentralized application.
Let’s dive into an example
Music
The first age of the internet brought quite a bit of disruption to the music industry… Idk if you knew, but if you we’re a songwriter 25 years ago and produced a hit song that got a million singles you would acquire royalties of up to $50,000. Now if you were to produce a hit song that gets a million streams you don’t get $50,000, you get $45… Enough to cover the first round at the bar.
In result, musicians are now finding other ways to produce revenue with their music. One being the utilization of a blockchain ecosystem like Ethereum. Music applications are now being built for musicians to reclaim their content, smart contracts are being implemented into the music itself, therefore the music protects the intellectual property rights of the artist.
You want to listen to the song? It’s free… or maybe a few micro pennies to download. You want to put the song in your video or movie? Make it your ringtone? These each cost a different price and presented at the point of purchase would be its underlying IP rights for the use of that piece of music.
Musicians are absolutely hyped about this because now, the song becomes a business. It’s out there on this platform marketing itself, protecting the rights of the author and because the song has a payment system; in the sense of a bank account, all of the money then flows back to the artist, and they control the industry rather than these powerful intermediaries.
This concept could apply not only to just songwriters but any creator of content, from art, to inventions, to scientific discoveries or the work from independent journalists. There are endless industries in which people do not gain fair compensation in which the underlying technology of Ethereum could benefit in a big way.
Other examples:
· A smart contract can be created to pay a worker for every hour they work, they log their hours on the blockchain and then after verification the funds are instantly transferred to them
· Buying goods internationally can be tracked and verified – reducing fraud.
· Property buying can be facilitated through the contract
· Every industry that has a contract in place will be able to use the blockchain of Ethereum
It is also worth noting that Ethereum is also a lot quicker than Bitcoin, average block time being 15 seconds for Ethereum opposed to 10 minutes for Bitcoin.
Personally, I am invested into both. If I HAD to choose, like I said it would be Ethereum simply because of where it is now in comparison to its potential as well as its very transparent, direct, opportunistic mission towards the hosting of decentralized blockchain applications.
submitted by alifkhalil469 to BtcNewz [link] [comments]

All The Longreads (So Far)

I'm trying to work on a system that would pull only the longreads links out and shove them into their own RSS feed. It's super hacky and embarrassing and all the other things that prevent people from sharing code (I will eventually, I promise...it's only 11 lines of python right now). But, I should at least share all the links, by date, in a post. Please enjoy all the longreads:
Tue, 20 Nov 2018 21:56:00 -0000 * How The Wall Street Journal is preparing its journalists to detect deepfakes * Self-driving trucks in US offer window into where machines may replace humans * When Elon Musk Tunnels Under Your Home * The Case Against Quantum Computing * HOW GOOGLE AND AMAZON GOT AWAY WITH NOT BEING REGULATED * How to Use an iPod Touch as a Secure Device Instead of a Phone * Scientists say goodbye to physical definition of the kilogram
Fri, 16 Nov 2018 22:15:10 -0000 * THE GENIUS NEUROSCIENTIST WHO MIGHT HOLD THE KEY TO TRUE AI * Are Killer Robots the Future of War? Parsing the Facts on Autonomous Weapons * The Internet Has a Huge C/C++ Problem and Developers Don't Want to Deal With It * How Superhuman Built an Engine to Find Product/Market Fit * THE HAIL MARY PLAN TO RESTART A HACKED US ELECTRIC GRID * Space Camp grows up
Fri, 09 Nov 2018 21:56:00 -0000 * Why Technology Favors Tyranny * Tech C.E.O.s Are in Love With Their Principal Doomsayer * HQ Trivia was a blockbuster hit — but internal turmoil and a shrinking audience have pushed its company to the brink * ‘It’s Giant and Has Like Five Million Buttons.’ The Office Desk Phone Won’t Die * Why Doctors Hate Their Computers * Here Comes ‘Smart Dust,’ the Tiny Computers That Pull Power from the Air * ASTRONOMERS SEE MATERIAL ORBITING A BLACK HOLE RIGHT AT THE EDGE OF FOREVER
Fri, 02 Nov 2018 20:56:00 -0000 * The Facebook Dilemma, Part 1 * The Facebook Dilemma, Part 2 * A Cryptocurrency Millionaire Wants to Build a Utopia in Nevada * The Man Behind the Scooter Revolution * A Fork in the Road for Avis * The Encyclopedia of the Missing
Fri, 26 Oct 2018 20:56:00 -0000 * Inside Rockstar Games' Culture Of Crunch * At Netflix, Radical Transparency and Blunt Firings Unsettle the Ranks * Podcast on Netflix Culture * It Might Get Loud: Inside Silicon Valley’s Battle to Own Voice Tech * How Dara Khosrowshahi’s Iranian heritage shapes how he leads Uber * AN ALTERNATIVE HISTORY OF SILICON VALLEY DISRUPTION
Fri, 05 Oct 2018 20:56:00 -0000 * The iPhone XS & XS Max Review: Unveiling the Silicon Secrets * Sex Workers Pioneered the Early Internet—and It Screwed Them Over * Raised by YouTube * Old Unicorn, New Tricks: Airbnb Has A Sky-High Valuation. Here's Its Audacious Plan To Earn It * EA announces ‘FIFA 19’ PS4 esports tournament
Fri, 28 Sep 2018 20:56:00 -0000 * How Uber is getting flying cars off the ground * Coinbase Wants To Be Too Big To Fail * The Apple Watch – Tipping Point Time for Healthcare * Meet the Community Keeping Obsolete Supercomputers Alive * The first Android phone 10 years later: An annotated review * Hacker says he'll livestream deletion of Zuckerberg's Facebook page
Fri, 21 Sep 2018 20:46:00 -0000 * Inside Facebook’s Election ‘War Room’ * Bitcoin Miners Flock to New York’s Remote Corners, but Get Chilly Reception * Living The Stream * A brief history of the numeric keypad * Inside the Dramatic, Painful--and Hugely Successful--Return of Reddit's Founders
Fri, 14 Sep 2018 20:55:47 -0000 * Android 9 Pie, thoroughly reviewed * Why a Leading Venture Capitalist Is Betting on a Decentralized Internet * Olaf Carlson-Wee Rode the Bitcoin Boom to Silicon Valley Riches. Can He Survive the Crash? * Memo to the Silicon Valley boys’ club: Arlan Hamilton has no time for your BS * Driverless Hype Collides With Merciless Reality
Fri, 07 Sep 2018 21:02:25 -0000 * Inside the World of Eddy Cue, Apple’s Services Chief * Bezos Unbound: Exclusive Interview With The Amazon Founder On What He Plans To Conquer Next * The Super Rich of Silicon Valley Have a Doomsday Escape Plan * What went wrong at Social Capital * How Android Pie’s Adaptive Battery and Adaptive Brightness work * The man who won the lottery 14 times
Fri, 31 Aug 2018 20:56:00 -0000 * Franken-algorithms: the deadly consequences of unpredictable code * Logged off: meet the teens who refuse to use social media * How Big Tech Swallowed Seattle * The Mystery of People Who Speak Dozens of Languages
Fri, 17 Aug 2018 20:56:00 -0000 * VIRGIN GALACTIC’S ROCKET MAN * Inside Evernote’s brain * LET’S ALL GO BACK TO TUMBLR * Why Can’t Europe Do Tech? * To Get Ready for Robot Driving, Some Want to Reprogram Pedestrians
Fri, 03 Aug 2018 20:56:00 -0000 * How Robot Hands Are Evolving to Do What Ours Can * Why the Next Silicon Valley Will Probably Be Outside the U.S. * Masayoshi Son’s secret to running his $100 billion fund: Telling start-ups to treat each other like family * What Happened to General Magic? * Growing Up Jobs
Fri, 27 Jul 2018 20:56:00 -0000 * Brock Pierce: The Hippie King of Cryptocurrency * How Silicon Valley Has Disrupted Philanthropy * THE 'GUERRILLA' WIKIPEDIA EDITORS WHO COMBAT CONSPIRACY THEORIES * Inside Google’s Shadow Workforce * MySpace and the Coding Legacy it Left Behind
Fri, 13 Jul 2018 20:55:00 -0000 * Hell for Elon Musk Is a Midsize Sedan * How Twitter Became Home to the Teen Status Update * Why Some of Instagram's Biggest Memers Are Locking Their Accounts * GEORGE HOTZ IS ON A HACKER CRUSADE AGAINST THE ‘SCAM’ OF SELF-DRIVING CARS * THE ONLY GOOD ONLINE FANDOM LEFT IS DUNE * Netflix Isn’t Being Reckless, It’s Just Playing a Game No One Else Dares (Netflix Misunderstandings, Pt. 3)
Fri, 22 Jun 2018 20:50:39 -0000 * How Twitter Made The Tech World's Most Unlikely Comeback * The Legend of Nintendo * Intel now faces a fight for its future * INSIDE THE CRYPTO WORLD'S BIGGEST SCANDAL
Fri, 08 Jun 2018 20:57:00 -0000 * ‘I can understand about 50 percent of the things you say’: How Congress is struggling to get smart on tech * The Twitter crime mystery that gripped Spain * Meet the people who still use Myspace: 'It's given me so much joy' * Exploring The Digital Ruins Of 'Second Life' * Why Aren’t We All Buying Houses on the Internet?
Fri, 01 Jun 2018 20:57:00 -0000 * Obama's US Digital Service Survives Trump—Quietly * he Search for Women Who Want Cybersecurity Careers * How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices * The Growing Emptiness of the "Star Wars" Universe
Fri, 11 May 2018 20:57:00 -0000 * Don't Skype Me: How Microsoft Turned Consumers Against a Beloved Brand * How to Make Your Open Office Less Annoying * The 15 People Who Keep Wikipedia’s Editors From Killing Each Other * The Wealthy Are Hoarding $10 Billion of Bitcoin in Bunkers * Supercomputers are driving a revolution in hurricane forecasting
Fri, 04 May 2018 20:57:00 -0000 * ‘Hi, It’s Amazon Calling. Here’s What We Don’t Like in Your City.’ * Over 400 Startups Are Trying to Become the Next Warby Parker. Inside the Wild Race to Overthrow Every Consumer Category * All We Want to Do Is Watch Each Other Play Video Games * CoinTalk
Fri, 27 Apr 2018 20:30:29 -0000 * Inside Jeff Bezos’s DC Life * Hulu Beyond 'Handmaid's Tale': Execs and Stars on a Promising Yet Uncertain Future * Can Silicon Valley Get You Pregnant? * You could be flirting on dating apps with paid impersonators
Fri, 06 Apr 2018 21:05:17 -0000 * Lawyer bots take the hassle out of fighting parking tickets and property taxes — and could cost local governments real revenue * How Europe’s new privacy rule is reshaping the internet * Checking in with the Facebook fact-checking partnership * A 200-Year-Old Idea Offers A New Way to Trace Stolen Bitcoins * South Korean millennials are reeling from the Bitcoin bust
submitted by berrydewd to RideHome [link] [comments]

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One
📷
https://preview.redd.it/ithso6k9w7531.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e87d53120d9cc645b080c070afc5f9b402d56bf3
TOKEN Roll x FENBUSHI DIGITAL
Analyst: Song Shuangjie
Special Adviser: Shen Bo Rin
Guide:
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC might commence around May 2019. The mainstream institutions join the game and ETF might be the driving force of the fourth round of price cycle.
Summary:
BTC has undergone three rounds of price cycles. ‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which makes it easily get mistaken that BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. There are 3 major rules of the BTC price cycle:
A. BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. A complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The price-rising section will commence one year ahead of the time before the output is halved. The BTC output was halved for the first time at the end of November 2012, and before that the BTC price touched the bottom in November 2011. The BTC output was halved for the second time in July 2016, as the BTC price touched the bottom in August 2015. As you can see, each time BTC output halving, is the start of a price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begins with it.
B. BTC price fluctuation range decreases as market value increasing. The BTC’s (in circulation) market value varies with its price fluctuations, which means BTC’s price rising makes its market value increases, and the price fluctuation range decreases. It is similar to the historical process of other asset classes. During the first price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 10636 times which was the biggest gain, and the maximum drawdown was declined by 93.76%. During the second price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, and declined by 83.93% maximum. During the third price cycle, BTC rose by 98.57 times at most, the maximum declining has not been confirmed yet.
C. The innovation led by BTC is constantly evolving and more and more approved by the mainstream. From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, and many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. With the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital certification, the improvement of practitioners' awareness, and the evolution of government regulation, the innovation led by BTC has evolved and is more approved by the mainstream.
The third round of the price cycle might come to an end around May 2019, and followed by the fourth round of price cycle. The maximum rise in the BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will be smaller than last three cycles. BTC's increasing market value demands more capital. Digital token shall embrace supervision to absorb more institutional funds. ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, it will shift from Crowdsale to ETF, and from deregulation to embracing supervision.
Risk Tips: ETFs have put capital amount into this market less than that we expected. Quantum computer technology is advancing by leaps and bounds
Content
1 The First Round of Price Cycle .
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.3 BTC-led innovatioized by the mainstream
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
List of Graphs
Graph 1: BTC Price Trend in The First Price Cycle (in USD)
Graph 2: BTC price trend in the second round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 3: The number of tokens in 2013 has increased significantly Graph 4: BTC price trend in the third round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 5: VIX index and BTC price are negatively correlated
Graph 6: Crowdsale has dominated blockchain investment since 2017 (millions of US dollars)
Graph 7: A large number of Crypto Funds were established in recent years.
Graph 8: ETH price trend (in USD)
Graph 9: ETH price is positively related to the size of Crowdsale financing
Graph 10: Lightning network capacity continues to grow
Graph 11: The number of lightning network channels continues to grow
Graph 12: The global Crowdsale growth rate slows down in 2018 .
Graph 13: Crowdsale’s fundraising has started to decline since 2018 .
Graph 14: Significant growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector in 2018
Graph 15: BTC block reward trend reduction
Graph 16: BTC price cycle and halving mechanism (in USD)
Graph 17: BTC market value scale trend increase
Graph 18: BTC price fluctuations become smaller
Graph 19: Admission to mainstream institutions has continued since the end of 2018
Graph 20: The third round of the price cycle may be completed around May 2019
Graph 21: The current stage of the price cycle has been probable more than half, and the downside space is limited
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. --Mark Twain
‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which results in producing an idea, in some investors’ mind, that the price of BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. No matter it is the A-share market of 2007 or the one of 2015, or any ‘bubble time’ in human history, the cycle power played its role. As far as BTC is concerned, its price has also experienced three rounds of cycles.
In addition, when the asset price is in a dark period of continuous decline and weak rebound, the power of the cycle also works. As long as it is a valuable asset, its price will eventually bounce back from the bottom. Opportunities have always been there, if you have an asset with high potential in hand. In the dark moments before dawn, the more you are afraid, the more you will be confused. At this time, you have to believe in the value investing. ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’, not the other way around. That means, we shall invest reversely, buying undervalued assets gradually in the bottom region of price decline cycle; selling overvalued assets gradually in the top region of price-rising cycle; and following the trend in other time region of the cycle.
1 The First Round of Price Cycle
The first round of BTC price cycle lasted for 610 days, from March 2010 to November 2011, and in this cycle, BTC price rise rate was the highest of BTCs three price cycles.
The price rise stage of the first round of price cycle, from March 2010 to June 2011, lasted for 447 days. The starting price was 0.003 USD/piece, and the highest price was 31.91 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 10,636 times. The price decline section of the first round of price cycle, from June 2011 to November 2011, lasted for 163 days. In this price decline section, the starting price of BTC was $31.91 per piece, and the lowest price was $1.99 per piece. The decline rate was 94%.
On May 22, 2010, the famous BTC Pizza dealt. Laszlo Hanyecz from Jacksonville, FL, bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTCs. Each price ofBTC is less than 0.01US dollars.
In the first round of the price cycle, there is no explicit positive or negative factors causing BTC's price huge fluctuation. Fluctuations are more like in a “natural” situation. Before the first BTC bubble bursted in November 2011, its price was in a trend of increasing. The reason of rise was that the price base of BTC was very low. With the understanding of BTC gradually getting better, the demand increased, and then, the price rose. For example, June 2011, WikiLeaks and some organizations began accepting BTC donations.
https://preview.redd.it/ol9mlz0kw7531.png?width=688&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f76ac24ef02d785f56c8a770be745cfeddbb1e7
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
The second round of BTC price cycle lasted for 1377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, and in this cycle, the price of BTC exceeded gold for the first time.
The price rise stage of the second round of price cycle, from November 2011 to November 2013, lasted for 743 days. The starting price was $1.99 USD/piece, and the highest price was 1,242 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 623 times. The price decline section of the second round of price cycle. From November 2013 to August 2015, lasted for 634 days. In this price decline stage, the starting price of BTC was 1,242 USD per piece, and the lowest price was 199.57 USD per piece. The decline rate was 84%.
At the second price cycle, the range of application of BTC has been greatly expanded. In November 2012, WordPress began to accept BTC; and in October 2013, the world's first BTC ATM was deployed in a coffee shop in Vancouver where customers could buy and sell BTC. In November 2013, the University of Nicosia announced accepting BTC for tuition, the university's chief financial officer called it "gold of tomorrow"; In addition to some underground economy and gray economy began to accept BTC, BTC is also getting closer to daily life.
The success of BTC popularized altcoins. The first type of altcoin LTC (Litecoin) was created in October 2011, and it is the time when the BTC price came to the end of price decline. In 2011, Namecoin and SwiftCoin were born successively. In 2012, Bytecoin and Peercoin were issued, however, BTC was still in the stage of rising slowly from the bottom, and the market was not hot. Along with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the altcoins is rampant, and a large number of altcoins are issued. According to CoinMarketCap data, there were 66 kinds of altcoins at the end of 2013, while there were less than 10 at the beginning of the year.
The safe-haven properties of BTC are widely approved. BTC was a choice for people in many countries that are in crises. The residents flocked to BTC, hoping to maintain assets value through BTC. This phenomenon has occurred many times during the European debt crisis. For example, in early 2013, in order to get the bailout, the Cyprus government imposed taxes on deposits and imposed strict capital controls. In order to prevent property from shrinking, the Cypriot people rushed to bank runs and exchanged their currencies for BTC. The price of BTC quickly rose from 30 something to 265 US dollars.

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Due to the lack of supervision, BTC is often affected by negative events, which makes the market confidence in the danger of collapsing. In October 2013, the FBI seized approximately 26,000 BTCs from the Silk Road website, causing the BTC price to collapse to 110 US dollars. On December 5, 2013, the People's Bank of China banned the use of BTC by Chinese financial institutions, which made the price of BTC declined. In February 2014, Mt. Gox, the largest BTC exchange at the time, said that 850,000 BTCs of its customers were stolen, worth nearly 500 million US dollars, and BTC prices fell nearly half, from 867 to 439 US dollars.
The emergence of a large number of altcoins caused market bleeding. Since 2014, the number of altcoins has exploded. By August 2015, the number has reached 556, resulting in diversion of funds and market expansion. On May 1, 2013, BTC accounted for 94.29% of the market value of all tokens, and the market value of other tokens except the top 10 tokens was about 1%. By August 25, 2015, the proportion of BTC is about 83%, and the other tokens account for 4%, which is obvious.
No matter how magical token is, it is still a kind of asset. The mean return of value is a basic common sense of investment. The value will pull the price back to it, just like the gravity. The risk increases with the price rises, and the value appears when the price declines. In the rising section of this cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, which is a great rise rate. When the price is too high, and the potential return in the future is insufficient, the attractiveness to new investors will fall, and the old investors will leave and look for more lucrative assets. Once the power of trend investors exhausted, the trend will reverse.
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
The third round of price cycle of BTC is not over and is currently in the downward phase of the cycle. The price increased from August 2015 and lasted for 845 days till December 2017. The starting price of the price-rising cycle BTC was 199.57 USD/piece, and the highest price was close to 20,000 USD/piece. The rise rate is up to 99 times. Since December 2017, the price started to decline. The price has fallen to the lowest 3,191.30 US dollars up to now, a drop of 84%.
BTC networks expanded rapidly, and BTC has gained increasing recognition among legislators and traditional financial companies. Studies have shown that by November 2013, the commercialization of BTC is no longer driven by the underground economy, but by legitimate businesses. During this price cycle, people from more countries can get in touch with, select, trade and use BTC on a daily basis. In January 2016, Bitcoin computing capacity reached 1 exahash/S for the first time; In March 2016, the Japanese cabinet acknowledged that BTC has a function similar to real money. In 2017, Norway's largest online bank Skandiabanken integrated BTC accounts. In December 2017, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, which is an important step for BTC to take toward mainstream investment. In October 2018, Fidelity launched its independent subsidiary Fidelity Digital Asset Services to provide digital asset services to institutional customers. In December 2018, the first round of financing was completed by the token exchange Bakkt launched by the Intercontinental Exchange. In February 2019, Nasdaq officially launched - Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX)- two indexes. The pension fund of US invests in the encryption fund, the mainstream organization is accelerating, and the relevant infrastructure is gradually improved.
BTC has become a risky asset. Under the current “three lows” environment - low interest rates, low spreads and low volatility, investors are seeking high returns, which leads to excessive financial risk behaviors and complacency, investors' risk appetite, and high leverage tools and the acceptance of high-risk products has increased, arbitrage transactions have prevailed, liquidity mismatches have been severe, and the overall market is fragile. As the results we can see that, the price of BTC is increasingly correlated with the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index). A lower VIX index indicates that investors expect less volatility, while a higher VIX indicates higher expected volatility. The lower VIX index indicates that investors are optimistic about S&P 500, while the higher VIX means that investors are uncertain about the market outlook. When market volatility declines, investors buy stocks and other types of risk assets, when the market volatility rises, investors sell risky assets.
Risk assets will be dumped when risk appetite reduces panic market. BTC bid farewell to the nature of safe-haven assets and become a risky asset. Since December 2017, with the decline of the VIX index, the price of BTC rises, and the price of BTC is negatively correlated with the VIX index. At the beginning of 2018, the VIX index skyrocketed and BTC fell rapidly. In October 2018, the global market risk aversion trend increased, the VIX index went up, and the BTC price also fell sharply.

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Crowdsale has become the main financing method in the blockchain field. Crowdsale was born in the second round of the price cycle, Mastercoin did the world's first Crowdsale in July 2013. In 2014, Ethereum also raised funds through Crowdsale, when the price of ETH was less than 0.22 USD per piece. After 2016, when it is in the third price cycle, Crowdsale is popular around the world, and many websites began to provide information and discussion communities for Crowdsale. From a global perspective, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment since 2017, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. In 2017, Crowdsale raised 7.4 billion US dollars, and in the first half of 2018, Crowdsale Raised 12 billion US dollars.
The Crypto Fund emerged. Along with the Crowdsale boom, a large number of Crypto Funds were created. The number of Crypto Funds newly established in 2017 was nearly 200, far exceeding the total amount of the Crypto funds created in previous years, which fully demonstrated that, with the rise in the price of the token, the enthusiasm of funds to blockchain field is high.

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The rise of blockchain 2.0, the Crowdsale tide pushed ETH up nearly 10,000 times. In the third round of the BTC (Token) price cycle, the biggest star is not BTC, but ETH. Crowdsale after 2016, issued tokens mainly through Ethereum, which represented the rise of ETH in the blockchain 2.0 era. Crowdsale prosperity boosted the rise of ETH. On January 13, 2018, the price of ETH rose to a peak of 1,432.88 US dollars per piece, which is 6512 times rise rate comparing to its initial price.
The ETH price has a significant positive correlation with the growth rate of Crowdsale financing. The growth rate of Crowdsale financing decreased by 69.23% in 2015, the price of ETH decreased by 66.30% in the same year. In 2016, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 2737.5%, and ETH increased by 753.74%. In 2017, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 3,159.91%, and ETH rose by 8809.91%.

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Plan for public blockchain performance improvement emerged, and significant progress were made in lightning network. With the popularization of blockchains, the congestion of BTC and other public chains has gradually emerged, and performance has become one of the bottlenecks in the blockchain industry. In 2018, the performance-improvement plan of the public blockchain emerged. Improvements were made to the difference in blockchain logical architecture, including on-chain capacity expansion schemes by improving consensus mechanism and sharing, and off-chain capacity expansion schemes by status channel, sidechain, off-chain computing, and Layer 0 expansion scheme that enhance the scalability of the blockchain by optimizing the underlying data transmission protocol of the blockchain. Since the main net of BTC lightning network goes live, the number and capacity of channels have been increasing. As of March 10, 2019, the capacity has reached 790 BTC, and the number of channels has reached 35,464.

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Note: The Unique channel refers to the channel that is directly connected to the node for the first time, and the Duplicate channel refers to the channel between the nodes that have been connected.
The standardization of the token is promoted. On January 22, 2018, South Korea required all BTC dealers to disclose their identity, thereby prohibiting anonymous trading of BTC. During the first quarter of 2018, Facebook, Google and Twitter prohibited the promotion of Crowdsale, while the US Securities and Exchange Commission investigated a large number of Crowdsale projects, and issued bans to some Crowdsale projects. Regardless of the government's attitude towards the token, it is committed to incorporating the token into the regulatory framework for legal compliance.
The Crowdsale bubble bursted and the magical story is no longer magical. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 871 Crowdsale were completed in the world. These projects involved directions as distributed analogous Facebook, twitter, amazon, and next-generation public chain (blockchain 3.0), etc. These projects have raised a large amount of funds, but the actual operating is worrying. The promotion of the project dissipated a large amount of funds, but the actual development progress was far less than expected, resulting in the market's expectation failure and the diversion of funds from the mainstream token. Superimposed the impact of more and more negative news, technical adjustment requirements and market sentiment fluctuation. The market enters a negative cycle, as the decline begins.

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In 2018, there has been rapid growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector, indicating that venture capital still have good expectations about the application and future prospects of the blockchain. According to Coindesk data, the risk investment in the blockchain sector in 2018 reverse the decline of 2017, year-on-year increase of 257%, and the total amount for the year 2018 reached 3.1 billion US dollars.

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BTC peaked first. In terms of time, in the third round of the price cycle, the first to peak is BTC, which reached 19,870.62 USD per piece in December 2017. The peak of ETH happened later than BTC, in January 2018. EOS did not peak until April. The important reason for BTC to peak first is that the amount of funds needed to support the BTC market value scale is the largest. When the market’s ability to carry on is not enough, it is inevitable for the price of BTC to react first.
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
The price cycle of BTC has obvious regularity, and some unchanging factors determine the price fluctuation of BTC.
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
One full BTC price cycle lasts approximately four years. In the first round of price cycles, the measure of time span is not reliable because of the availability of BTC trading prices. The second round of the price cycle lasted for 1,377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, about four years.
The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period, and the price-rising cycle starts one year before each halving. At the end of November 2012, the first production of BTC was halved, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 25, and in November 2011, the price of BTC has bottomed out, and the halving of BTC is one year after the second price-rising cycle. In July 2016, production of BTC was halved the second time, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 12.5. In August 2015, BTC had already bottomed out, and BTC's production was reduced again one year after the third price-rising cycle started.

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BTC output halving blows the horn of each price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begin. Although it is not BTC output halving that brings the price-rising cycle, but the halving of BTC output significantly reduced the growth rate of BTC supply, speeding up the rise of BTC price and the price-rising cycle. From November 2011 to November 2012, before the halving of BTC output, BTC increased by 6.74 times in one year. From November 2012 to November 2013, BTC price increased by 99.57 times. In the third price-rising cycle, BTC price rose by a maximum of 2.87 times in about 11 months before the production cut. After halving, BTC price rose by a maximum of 29.73 times in about 11 months.

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4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
The change in the market value scale of BTC (circulation) is mainly caused by its price fluctuations, and has little to do with the changes in the total amount of BTC output. According to CMC data, by April 28, 2013, the total amount of BTC that had been mined was about 11.18 million pieces, which is more than 53% of the total amount of BTC of 21 million pieces. The halving mechanism of BTC also accelerated the marginal decline of BTC total growth rate. Compared with the amount of BTC already mined, the new supply of BTC is very insignificant. In addition, the volatility of BTC prices far exceeds the volatility of BTC's total output, and the market value of BTC fluctuates with its price.
The market value of BTC has increased in trend. Because of the trend of BTC price-rising, the number of BTC total output has also increased in one direction, and the market value of BTC has increased in the long run. According to CMC data, on April 28, 2013, BTC's market value in circulation was only 1.5 billion US dollars. By the peak of the third price-rising cycle, the market value increased to 326.1 billion US dollars, and the current market value also reached 113.8 billion US dollars, increased by 74.87 times.
The price volatility of BTC is gradually getting smaller. With the increasing of BTC market value in trend, the BTC market is becoming more and more mature, more and more accepted by the public, more and more professional organizations are participating, the compliance operation is becoming mainstream, and the BTC price volatility is decreasing. Similar to the historical process of other asset classes, and the same thing is repeated again and again. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and the fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed

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4.3 BTC-led innovation continues to evolve and is more and more recognized by the mainstream
From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment.
The original intention of Nakamoto to create BTC is to establish a more efficient means of trading that can be electronically transferred in a safe, verifiable and non-tamperable form. During the early days of bitcoin and blockchain development, this drove the development of most applications of BTC and blockchain. However, with the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital token, the recognition of practitioners, and the evolution of government regulation, the changes led by BTC continue to evolve and gain more mainstream recognition.
More and more countries recognize that the blockchain reflects its unique value in many fields. The government has gradually incorporated digital token into regulation, and mainstream institutions are increasingly recognizing BTC. In 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, as BTC took an important step toward mainstream investment, improving the accessibility of BTC to traditional financial institutions. In March 2017, Cameron's Cliveworth and Taylor W. Crawworth brothers attempted to submit an application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for BTC ETF (transactional open-ended index fund). Although on September 22, 2018, US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected nine BTC ETF applications, the approval of BTC ETF application is a high probability event in the long run. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since the end of 2018, news about the organization of encrypted assets by mainstream institutions has continued.

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5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will start in May 2019, and mainstream institutions will enter the market, while ETF may become the core trend of the fourth round of BTC price cycle.
From the perspective of supply, the third halving of BTC begins around May 21, 2020. The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period. The price-rising cycle starts about one year before halving. From this perspective, the BTC price-rising cycle may be opened around May 2019.

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From the time dimension, the complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The third round of the price cycle, which started in August 2015, will be completed around August 2019, and the fourth round of the price cycle of BTC will begin thereafter. Considering that the data in the second round of the price cycle is more reliable, only the second round of price cycle data is used as the measurement standard, the complete price cycle is 1377 days, about 3 years and 9 months, and the third round price cycle may end around May 2019.
Combined with the previous two BTC price cycles, the downturn phase of the current price cycle has been probably more than half, and further downside space is limited. In the first two rounds of the price cycle, the duration of the downlink phase is less than the duration of the uplink phase. The duration of the third phase of the price cycle has been confirmed (845 days), while the duration of the downturn phase has been more than half of the upstream phase (450 days). From the first two rounds of the price cycle, the rapid decline in prices occurred in the early stage of the downtrend phase. The price fluctuations of BTC in the second half of the downturn phase have been significantly reduced. The BTC price declines reached 61% in the first half and 74% in the second round of the price cycle, and the corresponding maximum declines in BTC were 94% and 84% respectively. In the current round of the price cycle, the biggest drop has reached 84%, so take it from now, even if the price is further down, the downside space is already limited.
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Note: The data of the third round of the price cycle and the total duration are up to March 12, 2019.
From the price dimension, the downside space of the current round of BTC prices is limited, and the maximum increase of BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will become smaller. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed. On February 6, 2018, BTC fell to a minimum of 3,191.30 US dollars per piece, drop by 84.07%, has reached the low of second round of price cycle, from the perspective of price adjustment, BTC price downside has been more limited. The maximum increase in the fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will be smaller.
From the perspective of risk, after a year of continuous adjustment, BTC prices have fully fallen, risks have been gradually released, and investor’s risk appetite has risen to create favorable conditions for BTC prices to stabilize. Beginning at the end of December 2018, the VIX index has fallen, and now it has reached 15 or below. The investor's risk appetite has gradually picked up, creating favorable conditions for the BTC price to rise stably.
Last but not least, from the perspective of capital, the mainstream institutions accelerated their entry and many positive signals were released. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since 2018, on the one hand, the entry of mainstream institutions can bring incremental funds to the entire market, on the other hand, it also contributes to the formal development of the entire industry.
The value of the BTC's market value in circulation continues to increase, and the digital token embraces regulation. It is expected that the ETF will be the core trend in the fourth price cycle. As the value of the BTC and digital token market increases, their use will be more tied-up to legitimate use than illegal activities. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data, only 10% of the current BTC transactions is related to illegal activities and 90% is used for legal transactions. BTC's increasingly large market value requires more financial support. Digital token will embrace supervision to absorb more funds, and ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, there is going to be an evolution from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace supervision.
Note:
Although in this report, we try to predict the bottom and time of Token, especially BTC, by using time and space cycle, we would like to tell investors that it is very dangerous to invest basing on a specific dot and time. An investment shall base on the assessment of the value of the token.
Here are our suggestions: 1. Do not try to predict the market. Mistakes are liable to happen when you try to predict market harshly. 2. Feel the cycle. Cycle is always there, because of the constant human nature;3. Be with a good Token, which will bring you more chance to win. 4.Keep valuation in mind. The most important thing in value investing is to keep the valuation in mind. If the price is reasonable, everything is getable. The key is the difference between price and value (Absolute valuation method is not available with Token because of its specialty. However, a relative valuation method can be applied. Please refer to Token Toll’s report series).
Notions:
For some reasons, some definition in this report are not very defined, such as: Token, Digital Token, Digital Currency, Currency, Crowdsale, etc.
If you have any questions, be free to call us to discuss with us.

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submitted by Token_Roll to u/Token_Roll [link] [comments]

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